1. His entire plan was premised on Raila being unacceptable as Uhuru’s successor. It was meant to be a straightforward failure. It didn’t go according to plan.
2. For some strange reason, he and his supporters assumed Uhuru was playing Raila. Uhuru was to switch to Ruto at the last minute. No one remembers who came up with this crazy idea.
3. Ruto always banked heavily on his tribe being “unbetrayable”. Bad things were meant to happen to any tribe which betrayed the Kalenjin. That tribe was specifically the Kikuyu. But Uhuru has “betrayed” Ruto as an individual and Ruto desperately needs the Kikuyu. So his tribe can’t go after the Kikuyu because he wants the impression that the Kikuyu masses are with him.
4. Related to the 3 above, Ruto’s community cannot threaten any other tribe but the Kikuyu. They have no political deal with their neighbors the Luo and the Luhya, while the Pokot are more bad news where threats are concerned. So Ruto finds himself in this position where he can’t revenge against the Kikuyu and he can’t do anything to Uhuru.
5. Uhuru kept the military under lock and key. It’s important to study the Kalenjin military structure since 1978. A keen look at Moi’s security apparatus shows that he relied heavily on the Marakwet and the Keiyo for his military and security structure. His own Tugen people were not particularly enthusiastic about security services and even Gen Tonje didn’t bring them in large numbers. The Keiyo, the Marakwet, and the Tugen are not easily swayed by the Nandi. And Uhuru has taken up the Moi philosophy of keeping more military power among those three.
6. The Venezuelan game showed Ruto’s hand too early. Because Uhuru has state power, if Ruto intended to plant 2 million fake votes, by showing his hand so early, he knows Uhuru can simply go in and plan 6 million votes! This game is for big balls. Whoever blinks first gets his testicles crushed.
7. UDA is crying about chiefs because the Provincial Administration remains the most lethal structure in Kenya. After it, you have KNUT (teachers cover every inch of the country) and COTU. All these are on Raila’s side. It’s a massive mountain to climb.
8. Even UDA folks know Ruto leads only among the Kalenjin and is in a vicious fight with Raila among the Kikuyu. Raila is the preferred president for ALL the remaining tribes in Kenya. There is no logic where the guy wanted by 41 tribes can be second to the fellow supported by one and a half tribes. Forget opinion polls, this thing was sealed long ago.
9. After ten years of campaigning with state resources, even you would lose your mind when the “unelectable” man you despise so much comes in and leads the polls with just three months of campaigns under his belt. It must feel very annoying when well-laid plans go up in smoke like that.
10. The President whom you assumed was just a drunk spoilt brat is finishing his second term without ever going into the lame duck phase. Just imagine the weakling you were supposed to run over now pulling strings and influencing his succession with meticulous moves.
Underestimating Uhuru was a mistake. Now the man leaves you screaming and crying for mercy at public rallies as he prepares State House for his Handshake brothers.